Shoulder to shoulder?
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in April proposed a “dual countermeasure” by a U.S.-led alliance to counter Western “dual deterrence” against China and Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he proposed the idea during talks in Beijing, where they vowed to stand “shoulder to shoulder” to defend a multipolar world.
“Beijing and Moscow are likely to double down on joint Sino-Russian efforts to deepen and institutionalize ties with countries in the global south in the coming months,” Dueben said.
But calls to unite the Southern Hemisphere through platforms like BRICS and the SCO are largely symbolic, according to Pan Guang, an international relations expert at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
He gave the example of the SCO Development Bank, an initiative proposed by China that faced resistance from Russia, which feared Chinese capital would flow into Central Asia, traditionally seen as Moscow’s “backyard.”
China has traditionally used the Trans-Siberian Railway through Russia as its main overland trade route to Europe, but has been considering alternatives since the start of the Ukraine war. A new railway through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan would cut the journey to Europe by 900 kilometers (560 miles), making it the shortest trade route between China and the European continent.
But Russia’s stance on the railway appears to have shifted since the invasion of Ukraine, with Putin telling Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov that he does not oppose the project and supports both the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a Moscow-led trade bloc of former Soviet republics.
02:29
During the Shangri-La Dialogue, President Zelensky urges China to help end the Ukraine war
During the Shangri-La Dialogue, President Zelensky called on China to help end the war in Ukraine
Pan said Russia’s isolation due to the war in Ukraine has drawn Moscow closer to Beijing, which could pave the way for further cooperation under the auspices of the SCO and BRICS.
“There are increasing common interests,” he said, but added that Beijing could gain more by working with platforms such as the China-Central Asia Mechanism to build trust and ties with developing countries.
According to Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, China sees itself as part of the Global South and a developing country that benefits from globalization.
He said it gave Beijing a “sense of identity” that it had a duty to represent the Southern Hemisphere and resist Washington’s “de-globalisation” efforts and hegemony.
But according to Wang, Moscow does not see itself as part of this group, nor as a developing country.
“Russia considers itself to be a pole of the world and not part of the Global South… [actually] “China is opposed to multipolarity,” he said. “Therefore, China’s position is different from Russia’s… Although the two countries’ worldviews and pursuit of their future identities are different, this does not affect the strategic cooperation between the two countries.”
Putin has long had a vision of restoring Russia to its former status as a global power since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and many see the invasion of Ukraine as an attempt to achieve that goal by “recapturing” territory lost since.
Russia’s economy appears to have weathered Western sanctions over the war, and Russia’s oil and gas trade with China, India and Middle Eastern countries boomed last year, with a decade-long push away from the dollar resulting in a big increase in transactions in rubles.
Sergei Lukhonin, head of the Chinese economics and politics department at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, said Russia has long pursued an “East-oriented” foreign policy and began to strengthen ties with countries in the global south around the 2010s.
According to Lukonin, the Southern Hemisphere represents “an opportunity to avoid anti-Russian sanctions and maintain the engine of economic development.”
He said Russia would like to use multilateral platforms such as BRICS, SCO, ASEAN and the EAEU and “in theory” become “an analogue of existing international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.”
At a meeting in Brazil in February, BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors discussed a Russian proposal to create a digital settlement and payments platform as part of the “reform of the international monetary and financial system.”
Lukhonin said China and Russia share similar positions on cooperation with Southern Hemisphere countries and that their differences are “minor.”
“The current geopolitical situation leaves Russia with few other options for engagement with countries in the global south,” he said.
“For China, the Global South seems more to me to strengthen its bargaining position in strategic competition with the United States. So China can strike a balance between the Global North and the Global South.”
Guy Barton, visiting research fellow at Lancaster University’s Sectarianism, Proxy Power and Desectarianisation project, said that because Russia’s policy agenda remains centred on the war in Ukraine, Russian policy towards the global south is likely to be more defensive than China’s.
“If they feel strong and confident at home, it also puts them in a stronger position to pursue a stronger and more assertive foreign policy abroad,” he said. “If they feel more vulnerable and more exposed, then their foreign policy is likely to be more defensive.”
Will it work?
Dueben of Jilin University said many southern hemisphere countries were wary of China and Russia’s motives.
“This does not herald the imminent formation of an anti-Western alliance in the Southern Hemisphere led by China and Russia,” he said.
“The Global South is a very heterogeneous group, made up of countless different countries. Major countries in the Global South, such as India and Brazil, have their own interests and agendas and are seeking to pursue a more neutral policy course while maintaining strong ties with the United States and its allies.”
Duben said the war in Ukraine could further divide the southern hemisphere, adding that many countries fear Russian aggression, especially former Soviet republics, who “may become targets for future Russian expansionism.”
“This will be one of the factors that will dampen the enthusiasm of at least some countries in the Southern Hemisphere to be part of a more substantive grouping united under some form of joint Sino-Russian leadership.”
09:43
Two years into the Ukraine war: illness, evacuations and requests for help
Two years into the Ukraine war: illness, evacuations and requests for help
Efforts by Beijing and Moscow to use BRICS as a counterweight to the West may not work because its member states, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, “are not all our friends,” Barton said.
The Middle Eastern rivals were among six countries invited to join BRICS last year, but while Tehran has already committed to joining, Riyadh has said it is still considering whether to accept the invitation.
“[Riyadh wants] “This is to see how the BRICS countries are going to deal with Iran,” Barton said. “Maybe the Saudis just want to keep their options open.”
Riyadh has also aligned itself with Beijing and Moscow’s position in support of a Palestinian state, despite a US push for normalisation of Saudi Arabia-Israel relations that could bring further US security guarantees to Riyadh.
Gustavo de Carvalho, a senior fellow in African governance and foreign affairs at the South African Institute of International Affairs, said the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza had served as a “wake-up call for countries in the global south”.
“[It highlights] “We need to think about how global powers interact with us and the risk of becoming embroiled in competition that does not directly concern us,” he said.
“[Russia’s] “The narrative is still evolving and often contentious. China is often seen through a pragmatic lens — it’s big, it’s powerful and it can be useful. Russia is still often seen through an ideological lens…Russia is still rebuilding relationships almost from scratch.”
China is now Africa’s largest trading partner, and Africa is also a major beneficiary of Belt and Road funding, which critics say has left some countries with huge debts.
Russia has been trying to strengthen its ties with Africa since its annexation of Crimea in 2014, which led to a deterioration in its relations with the West. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has been part of Russia’s strategy to counter the West. Last year, when President Putin hosted the second Russia-Africa summit, he slammed the West for not ensuring food security on the continent. Russia is also a major arms exporter to Africa, but its trade with the continent remains far below that of China.
De Carvalho said African countries are interested in building ties with both China and Russia but are cautious about doing so for fear of becoming “pawns or proxies in global conflicts.”
“For the Global South, being non-aligned doesn’t mean being neutral,” he said. “It’s about preserving autonomy and options.”
