As the 2024 NFL Draft approaches, betting markets can give an indication of how the picks will play out as they are efficient and very smart. Bettors with inside information can place large bets on the market and move the numbers wildly. Want a good example? Caleb Williams is picked 1st overall at -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100).
Insiders can also change betting markets instantly. However, since volatility and luck are such big factors in the game, astute bettors prefer to bet on the draft because it is easier to predict the pick of a team than it is to beat another team.
Analyze the top 10 using betting odds. Predicting the NFL draft is nearly impossible, especially when one player being picked can change the entire board. But using data to see how people are betting on the draft makes it interesting to compare how NFL Draft experts view the best players and team needs. I’ll make it.
All implied probabilities remove the player from the betting market and make the probability of a player being drafted at that position more accurate. Crowdsourced odds are provided via BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Bet365.
Odds as of noon ET Wednesday.
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The betting market, and just about everyone else, has been pretty confident about this choice for quite some time. There’s not much to discuss here. Williams is the guy who didn’t pull off the biggest upset in NFL Draft history.
Pick probability: 99.5 percent
This is where things get a little fuzzy. Daniels has been the No. 2 overall pick in the betting market for some time, and even the overwhelming favorite to win. I have my doubts, but the market is what it is and managers are said to be selecting Daniels as their quarterback of the future.
Pick probability: 77.2%
With Daniels expected to be out of the roster, Maye slides in as the Patriots’ heavy favorite. It would seem like a bit of a steal if our consensus NFL big board QB2 fell to New England with the No. 3 pick.
Pick probability: 64.7%
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State University
The QB run ends here, as the consensus best non-QB in the draft heads to Arizona. Just a few months ago, I thought it was nearly impossible for Harrison Jr. to go beyond the No. 3 pick, but quarterback inflation has allowed Arizona to take Kyler Murray as WR1.
Pick probability: 53.4%
I can’t imagine a world in which the Chargers keep this pick and Jim Harbaugh drafts his former quarterback, so the betting markets are suggesting a trade here. We’ll see who that is, but considering the odds of being selected in the first four picks, McCarthy is the favorite to be selected fifth overall.
Pick probability: 32.9%
Now that their quarterback is out, the Giants are expected to land a true WR1 in Nabers. Daniel Jones needs weapons around him, and Nabors could be the most explosive player in the draft. If the Giants can pry Neighbors away, he would be a great pick at No. 6 overall.
Pick probability: 28.4%
For almost the entire time the betting market has been open, the top tackle in the draft has been linked to this Titans pick. If the Chargers keep their pick, Ault could be the No. 5 pick, but the betting market currently believes the Titans will get an opening day starter on the offensive line.
Pick probability: 44.0%
This is where the draft starts to get weird. Latu, Dallas Turner, and Byron Murphy all seem to fit here, but Latu gave this pick some momentum this week. However, the chances of that happening to him are less than 15%, so the board is wide open here. There are five players with odds of being selected here that are above 10%, making this mock draft a bit unstable as the market isn’t showing much confidence in going through the top seven.
Pick probability: 14.7%
9. Chicago Bears: Roma Odunze, WR, Washington
Odunze is the most likely pick here, but a pass rusher is certainly a possibility. Odunze is likely to be selected ahead of this pick, which would put him at the top of the list to be selected ninth overall.
Pick probability: 24.0%
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
It’s unclear whether the Jets intend to use Bowers at offensive tackle to protect Aaron Rodgers, but the betting market seems to think so. Honestly, it’s a perfect match. It would be fun for Rodgers to add Bowers as a pass catcher alongside Garrett Wilson.
Pick probability: 18.4%
Due to the odds offered by betting markets, you will have to use some prediction to select beyond the top 10. This includes the position a team is expected to draft, the over/under of an individual player’s draft position, and the odds of advancing to the first round.
12. Denver Broncos: Alabama Edge, Dallas Turner
16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Talese Fuaga, Oregon State, OT
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Barth, Edge, Florida
21. Miami Dolphins: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
23. Minnesota Vikings (via CLE): Chopp Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma State
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
28. Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
29. Detroit Lions: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon State
(Jaden Daniels Photo: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
