CAIRO, April 13 (Xinhua) — After negotiations with Iran failed to yield any agreement, the United States took drastic measures on Monday by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for the global energy market.
Experts say that, given the complexity of the strait and the potential blowback to U.S. own interests, a full blockade may be difficult to sustain. Nevertheless, this “reckless move” could further disrupt the global economy and heighten the risk of renewed regional conflict.
“RECKLESS MOVE”
After U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Sunday to block ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command said that U.S. forces will begin implementing a blockade of “all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports” on Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (1400 GMT).
In accordance with Trump’s proclamation, the blockade will be enforced “impartially” against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including “all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” according to the statement.
On Monday afternoon, the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz came into effect.
In a press conference following the blockade, Trump warned that the U.S. military will “eliminate” any Iranian ship if it comes close to the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
The blockade adds yet another hurdle to a globally vital shipping route already battered by the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “is not just a geopolitical escalation but a reckless move that risks choking the global economy, with American consumers bearing the brunt,” Iranian semi-official Tasnim news agency opined on Monday.
UNSUSTAINABLE BLOCKADE
While the United States seeks to pressure Iran by blocking the strait to secure concessions on issues such as the reopening of Hormuz, experts say that a full blockade is unlikely to be either feasible or sustainable.
The United States is likely to rely on enhancing its naval presence, intensifying monitoring and inspection operations, and possibly imposing “selective restrictions” on the movement of certain vessels, said Abdulaziz Alshaabani, a Saudi researcher at Al Riyadh Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
“However, it is unlikely that the naval blockade would be complete or absolutely effective, given the complexities of maritime routes and the entanglement of international interests,” Alshaabani added.
Mohammed Al-Jubouri, a professor at al-Iraqia University in Baghdad, echoes Alshaabani’s assessment.
“Iran does not need to engage the U.S. fleet directly to undermine the blockade,” Al-Jubouri said. “It suffices for Tehran to employ tactics involving fast-attack craft, naval mines, coastal missile batteries, or even proxy attacks in other parts of the region. Such tools are capable of transforming any blockade into a prolonged war of attrition.”
Abu Bakr al-Deeb, an advisor at the Cairo-based Arab Center for Research and Studies, argues that a complete blockade could end up shooting the United States in the foot, ultimately working against its own interests.
“The United States can impose temporary or partial control, but it would face immense difficulty in transforming that control into a stable, long-term blockade without incurring significant political and economic costs,” he added.
FAR-REACHING IMPACT
Even if a long-term blockade may be beyond Washington’s reach, the move is sure to send additional shockwaves through a global energy market already roiled by ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and could further jeopardize the fragile ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran, raising the risk of renewed conflict.
A blockade of a strait as vital as Hormuz cannot remain a “purely American affair” in terms of its impact, al-Deeb said, adding, “The global economy — particularly Asia and Europe — would suffer immediate and direct harm.”
Following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on Feb. 28, Brent Crude oil prices have already soared, reaching highs of over 120 U.S. dollars per barrel by early April.
Oil could rise to 150 dollars a barrel under a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Britain-based Onyx Capital Group, told Bloomberg.
The U.S. blockade is also believed to raise the risk of hostilities reigniting between Washington and Tehran, potentially undermining the ceasefire that was just agreed upon last week.
“The U.S. insistence and lack of flexibility regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz … reveals Washington’s intention to use these issues as a pretext for launching further strikes and attacks,” said Al-Jubouri.
Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has vowed to use new military capabilities if the war with the United States and Israel continues.
“We have not yet used our capabilities, and if the war continues, we will unveil capabilities that the enemy has no idea about,” IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi said after the U.S. blockade took effect. ■
