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Home » Tracker, analysis on first round’s selections
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Tracker, analysis on first round’s selections

i2wtcBy i2wtcApril 26, 2024No Comments17 Mins Read
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The 2024 NFL draft is finally upon us, live from downtown Detroit, the home – for the first time ever – of the reigning NFC North champion Lions. It’s also the first time Motown has hosted the league’s marquee offseason event in the common draft era (since 1967).

The league’s 89th annual “Player Selection Meeting” won’t feature much mystery with its No. 1 pick, but things could get awfully interesting shortly after that thanks a to a crop loaded with big-name offensive stars at the top of Round 1.

USA TODAY Sports will have the latest news, while analyzing each pick as it’s made Thursday night.

2024 NFL draft tracker: First-round picks

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): QB Caleb Williams, USC

Caleb Williams poses with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected first overall by the Chicago Bears during the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza on April 25, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan.

The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner has essentially appeared destined to be the top pick of this draft for about three years, following an impressive debut as a freshman with the University of Oklahoma. But the mystery evaporated entirely when the Bears traded former QB1 Justin Fields to Pittsburgh in March. Now Williams becomes the latest presumed savior for one of the league’s original franchises – one that’s never had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs in its century-long-plus existence.

NFL DRAFT HUB: Latest NFL Draft mock drafts, news, live picks, grades and analysis.

However Williams, 22, Chicago’s first No. 1 pick of the common draft era, should certainly be the guy to hit those thresholds and more. His game has been (unfairly) compared to three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes’, though Williams – he measures 6-1, 214 pounds – self-identifies with four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers. Either way, he has elite arm talent and the ability to make off-platform throws with the highest degree of difficulty, very often a necessity with the depleted Trojans last season. He also possesses ample mobility, though will often scramble in a bid to extend his time to throw rather than just take off down the field. In two years at Southern California, he passed for 8,170 yards, 72 TDs and 10 INTs despite often having to improvise.

Williams will likely have to learn to tamp down his creativity as a rookie in 2024, yet – atypical of most No. 1 picks – he’s stepping into what’s virtually a turnkey operation, especially compared to what Fields was working with for three seasons. Chicago’s offense is stocked with weapons (WRs DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, RB D’Andre Swift, TE Cole Kmet, solid offensive line), while the defense should be a top-10 unit. Every reason to believe Williams should be the capstone to the Bears’ rebuild, the groundwork laid last year when they traded the No. 1 pick to Carolina – the Panthers eventually went with former Alabama QB Bryce Young – for what turned out to be this year’s top selection. And Chicago should legitimately contend for a playoff spot in 2024 after winning five of its final eight games last season to finish 7-10.

2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

Make that two teams in a row opting for former Heisman winners tasked with settling long-festering quarterback problems. Daniels, 23, who won college football’s most prestigious award last season, projects as this draft’s top dual threat QB – comfortable with picking apart defenses from the pocket or breaking their backs with an 80-yard run. He’s been widely compared to Lamar Jackson, though is a far more advanced passer than the two-time league MVP was at this stage if not quite as electric an open-field runner. The former Arizona State star, who transferred after the 2021 season, took a huge leap for the Tigers in 2023, similar to the one Heisman predecessor Joe Burrow had in 2019, passing for 3,812 yards, 40 TDs and four INTs while rushing for 1,134 yards and 10 scores.

The Commanders will have to do a better job protecting Daniels – and he’ll have to be more judicious about breaking the pocket in the NFL – given the cautionary tale of former Washington QB Robert Griffin III, who was never the same player after tearing up his knee and absorbing heavy contact throughout his 2012 rookie season. (Departed Sam Howell, last year’s QB1 in D.C., was sacked a league-most 65 times.) At 6-4, 210 pounds, Daniels has a slender frame, like RG3, and a tendency to put it in harm’s way while trying to pick up a few extra yards at the end of already profitable plays. It should help him to be teamed with experienced OC Kliff Kingsbury – he’s worked with the likes of Mahomes, Williams and Kyler Murray over the years – and playmakers like WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson and RB Austin Ekeler. Daniels could be the player who exemplifies the reset of a franchise under new ownership and hoping to soon notch its first postseason win in nearly two decades.

3. New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

With their earliest draft pick of owner Robert Kraft’s three-decade tenure, the Pats attempt for the second time in three years to draft the long-term successor for legendary Tom Brady. (Mac Jones, their Round 1 choice in 2021, was traded to Jacksonville earlier this year.) Only 21, Maye comes with all the physical tools – ideal size (6-4, 223), howitzer arm and bruising open-field running ability, a skill set that evokes comparisons to Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, the latter proving it’s a combo that can work well in the adverse weather conditions of the AFC East. The ACC player of the year in 2022, Maye wasn’t as good last season, though his supporting cast had also deteriorated. Still, he passed for nearly 8,000 yards, 62 TDs and 16 INTs over the past two years for the Tar Heels, running for nearly 1,200 yards and 16 more scores.

Decision-making and some occasionally wildly off-target throws have been issues that need improvement. The Pats also have a lot of work to do around Maye, the left side of the offensive line at issue and no elite players at any of the offensive skill positions. However new director of scouting Eliot Wolf clearly prioritized getting a potential franchise quarterback into the program while knowing veteran QB Jacoby Brissett can start early on if the Patriots opt to hold Maye back once the regular season starts. New England hasn’t won a playoff game since TB12 departed following the 2019 season, but Kraft and Co. are banking Maye can change that … and soon.

This is the fourth time in the draft’s common era that quarterbacks have been the first three picks (1971, 1999, 2021).

4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

The first non-quarterback off the board – and arguably the best player in the draft among an amazing group of receivers – “Maserati Marv” immediately becomes the No. 1 wideout on a Cards squad that lost Hollywood Brown during free agency. Yet Harrison, 21, the son of his Hall of Fame namesake, should be a significant step up from Brown as a rookie – especially if he can quickly fulfill his widely cited comparison to Arizona legend Larry Fitzgerald. Big (6-3, 209), fast, precise and competitive, the two-time All-American and 2023 Biletnikoff Award winner as college football’s best wideout, Harrison will beat you with his route running, at the point of the catch or downfield depending on the situation. He’s exceeded 1,200 receiving yards and found the end zone 14 times each of the past two seasons and might be the best to roll off what seems like a Buckeyes wide receiver assembly line. No one’s likely to be happier than Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who hasn’t had a 1,000-yard target since DeAndre Hopkins in 2020.

Don’t be surprised if Harrison emerges as the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Here’s an assessment from the 2023 Offensive ROY, Texans QB C.J. Stroud, Harrison’s former teammate at Ohio State: “I think I read something like he’s NFL ready, but other guys have more potential. That makes no sense. Like, what? If you’re ‘NFL ready,’ how is that not potential?” Stroud said earlier this month. “For me, I think I would love to play with him again. I probably won’t get that opportunity for a while, but I’m super proud of him. Whoever’s up there (drafting) man, be smart. Don’t be dumb. Don’t think too hard.”

▶ Marvin Harrison Jr. Q&A

5. Los Angeles Chargers: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

A massive man (6-9, 321), the unanimous 2023 All-American – and son of legendary Chiefs lineman John Alt – is widely regarded as the best blocker in this draft and a plug-and-play starter. However with Pro Bowler Rashawn Slater seemingly entrenched on the left side for the Bolts, Alt will likely move to right tackle. A team captain, Alt was a highly respected leader in South Bend and certainly a productive one – allowing just one sack total and just a handful of pressures over the past two seasons. QB Justin Herbert, who didn’t make it through the 2023 season, can certainly use the added level of protection. But expect this team to run a lot more in 2024 courtesy of its fortified line and new HC Jim Harbaugh’s smashmouth philosophy.

6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers, LSU

Daniels’ primary target the past two seasons in Baton Rouge, Nabers, who led the SEC in receptions each of the past two seasons, really blossomed during a 2023 All-American campaign (89 catches for 1,569 yards and 14 TDs). As highly regarded as Harrison is, some NFL observers believe Nabers has even more upside. At 6 feet, 200 pounds, he blazed a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at LSU’s pro day, though Nabers, 20, claimed it was sub-4.3 on some stopwatches. He should be a highly welcomed addition to embattled QB Daniel Jones, whose contract sets this season up as a make-or-break campaign for him personally. The Giants, who haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. (also an LSU product) in 2018, badly needed an alpha playmaker after losing RB Saquon Barkley to Philadelphia in free agency.

7. Tennessee Titans: OT JC Latham, Alabama

Maybe not the tackle the Titans had targeted, but Latham should settle in to an O-line that needs the help. Massive at 6-6, 342-pounds, he was a fixture at right tackle for the Crimson Tide and is a mauler who can also play guard. And given the Titans addressed the offensive skill positions in free agency (WR Calvin Ridley, RB Tony Pollard), may as well continue leveling up the line after they made LG Peter Skoronski their first-round pick in 2023. Now Tennessee continues to invest in the protection around second-year QB Will Levis. And don’t forget, new HC Brian Callahan hired his father, legendary O-line coach Bill Callahan, to remediate a front five that surrendered 64 sacks in 2023, tied for most in the AFC.

8. Atlanta Falcons: QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington

This draft’s first real shocker given the Falcons just signed veteran QB Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract in free agency. However if not for the four season-ending injuries (one to each of his shoulders and two torn ACLs) he suffered while at Indiana University, Penix would likely have been picked even earlier – especially after two stellar seasons following his transfer to the Huskies. While at UW, Penix threw for more than 9,500 yards with 67 TDs and 19 INTs. His left arm may be the most electric in this draft, and it carried Washington to within a win of the 2023 national title. Before a title game loss to Michigan, Penix showed pro scouts everything they needed to see in a semifinal victory over Texas, lasering the ball all over and through a stout Longhorns defense to the tune of 430 yards and two TDs, from the pocket and outside of it. Penix (6-2, 216), a first-team All-American last season, will be 24 next month, so you wonder how long he’ll sit behind Cousins. But the adversity he faced and experience he gained over six college seasons should help him adjust to a backup role … however long that is.

9. Bears:

10. New York Jets:

11. Minnesota Vikings:

12. Denver Broncos:

13. Las Vegas Raiders:

14. New Orleans Saints:

15. Indianapolis Colts:

16. Seattle Seahawks:

17. Jacksonville Jaguars:

18. Cincinnati Bengals:

19. Los Angeles Rams:

20. Pittsburgh Steelers:

21. Miami Dolphins:

22. Philadelphia Eagles:

23. Vikings (from Cleveland Browns via Houston Texans):

24. Dallas Cowboys:

25. Green Bay Packers:

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

27. Cardinals (from Texans):

28. Buffalo Bills:

29. Detroit Lions:

30. Baltimore Ravens:

31. San Francisco 49ers:

32. Kansas City Chiefs:

▶ Entire 2024 NFL draft order

What is the record for quarterbacks drafted in first round?

The answer is six in 1983, when John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O’Brien and Dan Marino were taken in the first 27 picks. Elway, Kelly and Marino all wound up in the Hall of Fame. Six QBs could in Round 1 tonight with USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. all in the mix.

Labeling Iowa first-round prospect Cooper DeJean isn’t easy

Whichever NFL team drafts Cooper DeJean will decide how to best utilize his skill set and athleticism. The former Iowa Hawkeyes cornerback is one of the draft’s most intriguing prospects to evaluators thanks to the versatility he showed in his three seasons of college play. He’s also an anomaly himself. 

DeJean is a cornerback. DeJean is white. DeJean is a white cornerback. 

To refer to him as a “defensive back” or prognosticate a necessary transition to safety is “mind-blowing,” according to ESPN analyst and former NFL cornerback Domonique Foxworth. 

Read Chris Bumbaca’s full feature here

Who will Dallas Cowboys take in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL draft?

It’s been an uneventful, if not necessarily quiet, offseason for the Dallas Cowboys – that despite owner Jerry Jones’ contention that his team is “all in” on the 2024 season following another playoff flameout on the heels of a 2023 division title. Dallas has done little in free agency aside from hemorrhage players due its bloated salary cap. And enters the draft after getting little production from last year’s rookie class. USA TODAY Sports’ columnist Jarrett Bell writes, “The Cowboys may be ‘allin’ for winning big while riding a 28-year drought since playing for a championship, but without some impact reinforcements ASAP the challenge confronting coach Mike McCarthy while on the last year of his contract gets even tougher. More pressure with this draft? Jones doesn’t characterize it as such. Never mind your lying eyes.”

Read Jarrett Bell’s pre-draft Cowboys column

Which teams need quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL draft?

It’s no secret that the Chicago Bears will almost certainly choose USC QB Caleb Williams atop tonight’s first round. It’s very likely the Commanders and Patriots follow suit by selecting passers of their own. But several other teams in the league also desperately need QB help, though not necessarily starters. Here is a ranking of all 32 teams, based on their need at position, from least to most heading into tonight.

When is the 2024 NFL draft?

The 2024 NFL draft begins on Thursday (Round 1), continues Friday (Rounds 2-3) and concludes Saturday (Rounds 4-7) at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza in downtown Detroit.

How to watch the 2024 NFL draft

Live coverage of the NFL draft can be found on ABC, ESPN, ESPN Deportes and NFL Network. Streaming coverage is also available on ESPN+, NFL+, YouTube TV, Hulu+ Live TV, Fubo TV and Sling TV.

Round 1: Thursday, 8 p.m. ET

Rounds 2-3: Friday, 7 p.m. ET

Rounds 4-7: Saturday, noon ET

More

Which teams could be looking to trade in the 2024 NFL draft?

Some deals have already happened, three teams – the Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears – already possessing multiple first-round picks due to previous transactions. But it’s a near certainty more wheeling and dealing will occur Thursday, some teams perhaps moving up (or even back) while targeting a quarterback – a stratagem that could mean a lot of calls to the Cards and Los Angeles Chargers, among other teams. Which clubs seem likely to move up? Or down? Here are eight to monitor on both sides of that question.

Draft’s risk-and-reward factor

Historically, about half of the players selected in the first round pan out as success NFL pros – said another way, about a 50% chance a Round 1 prospect won’t live up to the high hopes inherently tied to him. Who do this year’s higher-risk candidates seem to be?

Read Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz’s 11 boom-or-bust prospects

NFL draft’s 50* biggest busts

The New York Jets’ trade of QB Zach Wilson this week underscored anew how badly the 2021 NFL draft went for so many quarterback-desperate teams. Yet draft history is littered with busts, particularly in Round 1, like Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones, so beware before you get overly optimistic about the guy your team chooses tonight. Here’s a thorough look back at the 50 most notable draft washouts from the past 50 years … and we (justifiably*) found a way to shoehorn more than 50 onto the list.

Read Nate Davis’s complete rankings here

How Washington high school, COVID-19 shaped Caleb Williams’ stardom

WASHINGTON – Caleb Williams was halfway across the country, but that didn’t stop him from attending his senior year statistics course at Gonzaga College High School. 

“He would Zoom into my class every day from Norman, (Oklahoma),” said Terry Kernan, Gonzaga’s athletics director. “He would be in the football facility, or in his dorm room, or he’d be studying in the weight room. But he’d be there every day, just showing that commitment, where he could have easily just cashed it in and said, ‘I’m already at Oklahoma.‘ ” 

These were abnormal circumstances for a student at Gonzaga, an all-boys Jesuit private school for grades 9-12 located roughly 10 blocks from the Capitol Building. These were also abnormal times. Like millions of Americans his age, Williams completed his senior year of high school (the 2020-21 academic year) virtually as the COVID-19 pandemic curtailed in-person learning. His senior football season was canceled.

Read Chris Bumbaca’s full feature here

Nate Davis’ final mock draft

It dropped Monday morning and, as you might expect, was top-heavy with quarterbacks in the top five − one joining his new team via a projected trade:

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): QB Caleb Williams, USC

2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

3. New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

5. Minnesota Vikings [PROJECTED TRADE with Los Angeles Chargers]: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers, LSU

7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

8. Atlanta Falcons: DE Laiatu Latu, UCLA

9. Bears: WR Rome Odunze, Washington

10. New York Jets: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

Read the full mock draft with analysis

Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz’s final mock draft

It dropped Thursday morning and has a different defensive player going int the top 10 than Davis’ version.

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): QB Caleb Williams, USC

2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

3. New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

5. Minnesota Vikings [PROJECTED TRADE with Los Angeles Chargers]: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers, LSU

7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

8. Atlanta Falcons: DT Byron Murphy II, Texas

9. Bears: WR Rome Odunze, Washington

10. New York Jets: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

Read the full mock draft with analysis

2024 NFL draft’s top 125 players

Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz also revealed his final list of the best players on this year’s board this morning, a group that now runs more than 100 deep – meaning some of these players will definitely be available when the fourth round begins Saturday morning. As the mock drafts indicate this draft rolls deep with quarterbacks and receivers at the top, though a quality group of offensive linemen isn’t far behind.

1. Caleb Williams, QB, USC

2. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

4. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

5. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

6. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

7. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

8. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

9. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

10. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Read the full list of top players with analysis

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.





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