Will winning the vote of confidence save Humza Yousaf?

The Prime Minister has previously faced criticism from within his own party over the impact of the Green Party’s approach to economic and social policy on the SNP and the country.

Mr. Yousaf knows this, and his attempt to take back control of a narrative that is in danger of slipping away from him began Friday in Dundee.

He was due to travel to Glasgow to give a talk on “an independent Scottish labor market”.

Instead, Yousaf strutted around the construction site, wearing a hard hat and high-visibility vest, trying to look purposeful.

“When you ask people about housing, it’s one of the biggest issues that comes up right away,” the first minister told me.

But it’s not the people in front of him that he needs to convince at the moment. It’s opposition politicians in the Scottish Parliament.

There are 63 Scottish National Party MSPs in Holyrood. There are 65 opposition MSPs.

If all opposition members vote against Yousaf in a personal vote of confidence, Yousaf will lose and, although he is not legally obligated to resign, the political pressure for him to resign will be immense. It will be.

If Yousaf can persuade some or all of the seven-strong Green Party to change their minds against him, he may survive.

Another option for him is to seek support from Ash Regan, a former SNP leadership rival who switched to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in October.

Mr. Reagan is offering a price for his help, and the amount is rising.

She first called for a competent government, a renewed focus on independence, and action to protect the “dignity, safety and rights of women and children,” noting the gender debate at the heart of many of Mr. Yousaf’s issues. Ta.

Ms Regan then added actions to protect the future of the Grangemouth refinery in the Firth of Forth to her list.

Mr Yousaf has written to Holyrood leaders of all political parties, proposing a meeting to discuss “how to make a minority government work”.

In an interview with BBC News, Mr. Reagan seemed to suggest that this was not enough.

She also revealed that she has not spoken to Yousaf since losing to him in a leadership contest last spring.

Ms Regan said: “Some of the things he said about me last year when I left the party to go to another party, he said to those he works with that level of professional… “This shows that it is always wise to be courteous.”

Mr Yousaf described his former rival’s departure from the SNP as “not a particularly big loss”.

In an interview with BBC Radio Scotland, Central Scotland Green MSP Gillian McKay defended the power-sharing deal, which was originally concluded under Nicola Sturgeon in 2021.

“What the first minister is essentially saying to us is, ‘You got dumped, can we still be friends?'” she says.

“I’m actually pretty upset,” Ms McKay said, visibly tearing up. “We don’t want to be in this position, but it’s the first minister who put us here.” he added.

When Yousaf tells me he feels sorry for Green Party co-leaders Patrick Harvey and Lorna Slater, who he robbed of their cabinet jobs and forced out of government, there was something bordering on remorse about all of his feelings. I got a glimpse of it.

“I didn’t mean to upset them,” he told me, adding that he understood why they were so upset.

Will his letter to them include an apology?

In any case, the back channels between the SNP and the Opposition are already open.

Wheeling and trading is underway.

After the Butehouse Agreement collapsed, he described it as a “Faustian pact that dragged us into the gates of electoral hell”.

How will he charm the likes of Mr Ewing, Mr Regan and former SNP treasurer Kate Forbes, who narrowly won the party leadership, while also reaching out to the left of the party and the Greens?

More frankly, how can it survive long after a week of turmoil, even if it wins a narrow vote of confidence?

Another senior source close to Mr. Yousaf says the answer is brutal: “You can’t.”