Increased chances of tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin
The Fox Forecast Center is monitoring two areas of severe weather in the Atlantic Basin over the next week, neither of which poses an immediate threat to the United States.
A new tropical disturbance is currently being monitored for development in the eastern Atlantic on the heels of Invest 95L, which is attempting to turn into a tropical depression or tropical storm Beryl.
The new disturbance is located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is currently only producing occasional rain and thunderstorms. However, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says the disturbance is moving westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph and may slowly strengthen early next week. There is currently a 20% chance of it strengthening within the next week.
But it’s a sister storm just to the west that’s currently garnering the most attention in the tropics.
Computer forecast models indicate that the disturbance, which the NHC has named Invest 95L, is likely to undergo tropical development as it approaches the Caribbean islands late Sunday or Monday. Invest is a naming convention used by the NHC to identify areas it is studying for the possibility of tropical development within the next week.
But the Fox Forecast Center said there’s a lot of uncertainty about where the storm will then head and how strong it will become.
The NHC currently sees the probability of Invest 95L occurring in the high range. These probabilities are at least the probability of tropical cyclone formation.
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“(Wednesday) numerous computer simulations predicted this hurricane to strengthen into a hurricane sometime next week,” said Fox Weather hurricane expert Brian Norcross. “(Thursday) various computer models predicted a mostly weak hurricane moving westward. Once it reaches the Caribbean (which is the prevailing view), it’s pretty rare for it to strengthen, but it has happened before.”
Norcross added that for now, there is nothing to be done except continue to gather information, especially in the Caribbean islands.
Brian Norcross: Increased chances of unusual tropical Atlantic June development
Prior to 2021, June tropical storms were rare in the Atlantic Ocean eastern Caribbean, but they have occurred three times in the past three years, with Bonnie coming on strong in 2022 but not until it reached the western Caribbean.
Invested 94L
Another disturbance, known as Invest 94L, is moving through the Caribbean Sea toward Central America and southern Mexico, potentially bringing heavy and dangerous rainfall.
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The NHC considers the system unlikely to develop, and if it does, it would likely develop in the westernmost Caribbean Sea or southernmost Gulf of Mexico if it survives across land, Norcross said.
“The current schedule is for the disturbance to impact Central America and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend,” he explained. “High pressure over the southern U.S. should keep the disturbance south.”
